01164     2200253   4500001002100000005001700021008004100038020001800079035002400097040001300121041000800134082001100142245011200153260005400265300001500319520045300334521001100787650002500798650003000823659000900853700002200862852001300884990001300897JAKPU-1211000000020320111226024438.0                                   ind    a9780815729907  0010-121100000000201  aJKPU DKI0 aENG 0a363.34  aBlindside :bhow to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics /ceditor, Francis Fukuyama  aWashington :bBrookings Institution Press ,c2007  avi, 198 p.3 aFocuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed events to surprise leaders and examines philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. Discusses low-probability, high-impact contingencies in various sectors.1 aDewasa 0aEmergency management 0aManajemen Keadaan Darurat  aBeli1 aFukuyama, Francis  aBPAD DKI  a50558/11