how to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics Fukuyama, Francis text Washington Brookings Institution Press 2007 ind ENG vi, 198 p. Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed events to surprise leaders and examines philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. Discusses low-probability, high-impact contingencies in various sectors. Dewasa editor, Francis Fukuyama Emergency management Manajemen Keadaan Darurat 363.34 BPAD DKI 9780815729907 JKPU DKI 20111226024438.0 JAKPU-12110000000203 Converted from MARCXML to MODS version 3.5 using MARC21slim2MODS3-5.xsl (Revision 1.106 2014/12/19)